VOLVEMOS AL NEGOCIO!!! (BACK TO BUSINESS!!)
Después de encontrar con esfuerzo una forma de evitar la penosa Ley del Juego (05.06.12), donde los apostadores españoles deben jugar/inscribirse en las .ES en vez de las .COM como antes, empezamos una nueva temporada para el blog, donde muchas cosas van a cambiar.
After working hard to find a way through the awful Spanish Gaming Law (05.06.12), where Spanish gamblers must play/inscribe in .ES websites instead of the .COM as before, we start a new season for the website, where a lot of things are going to change.
The website has been renamed as THE BETTING TREE, as we believe that there are many branches and leaves in the betting tree where one can get profit from.
The first and obvious is that I will be writing in Spanish & English, as I have the thought that my betting ideas can easily work good enough for anybody who is familiar to the betting world.
As for the proceeding with stats and accounting profit in bets, before the law came in, I used to only account for the bets made by myself and others than joined the website, such as Fenice, Franba, Charles and Pperezxli, but never did it for the top premium tipsters who I have been following and heartily recommending. Numbers are everything in the betting industry, and if you make money with your predictions, the more you make, the better you are. The best stat to check how good a tipster is is ROI (Return of Investment), which is the yield percentage he makes dividing profit into the total units invested. To resume, there are, in my opinion, 4 levels of tipsters according to their ROI level, always bearing in mind a minimum of 300/400 bets must have been placed as a volume to consider:
a) 0% to 5% = these are what you could call standard amateur winners, people who make a profit, but is not good enough to live off your betting abilities, just maybe an additional source for extra money in the pocket. When a paying tipster has these numbers, they are not top class, and they are not the best option to follow, as they do not maximize profit.
b) 5% - 10% = if you are an amateur user, you are a notable tipster, and can live off your bets decently making a living out of it. If these percentages come from a paying tipster, he could be interesting if he is specialized in a certain strange league of an certain sport, but if not, in my opinion, he is not worth following/paying, as there are many who are a step better than him in the main sports (football, basketball, tennis, etc.)
c) 10% - 20% = as an amateur user, you should start thinking seriously about making a career from your predicting abilities, and charge for your tips, as these percentages are top class. These are the minimum percentages I use for paying tipsters, people who are a guaranteed profit long term wise, they are constant, solid and regular when hitting winners.
d) 20% or more = I have never met an amateur user having these stats, and if I did, they became paying premium tipsters in a blink of an eye. If you find someone who has more than 20% ROI after 400 tips, he is the closest to a tipping God of bets, and someone you should keep your eye on and trust 100% with your money. You will not see them very often.
So, after searching and analyzing many tipsters, I have a group that cover most events in the big sports (I do not bet horse racing), and have been doing nicely in the last 6 months. I will list them by specific sports and their Twitter account name:
@MJosemma (Football, Spanish Leagues): Spanish paying tipster, his specialty is Spanish football, and his ROI is always between 15% and 20%, so he is someone you cannot miss. His monthly cost is 30€. His stats can be found at
http://premium.apuesta10.com/tipsters/josemma/statistics
@Bettingfamily (Football, European Leagues): They have just started, and it is a website composed by two good tipsters, @FootballTipsNL & @TwoPointFiveTip. The first has a 13.9% ROI in 140 bets, and the second does not have stats, but I have been told they are even better. Their monthly cost is 20€. @FootballTipsNL website stats at
http://www.dutchfootballtips.co.uk/Records.php and @Bettingfamily at
http://bettingfamily.com/?page_id=153
@Be7man (Football, South American Leagues): He touches all world football leagues and some tennis, but he is at his best with South American leagues. Has an 8.62% overall ROI in 698 bets, and he is cost free. His stats at
http://be7man.blogabet.com/
@Basketwin_ES (European Basketball):I discovered him in January, and his ability for hitting 50% odds (total points, Handicap) with a 63% hitting rate was astonishing. Just with 157 tips he had a 22.79% ROI. He has his own paying website, and in one year (June 2011 - May 2012) he has made a profit of +369.15 units (1 unit equals 20€, total of 7383€ made on his website). His monthly cost is 40€ and his stats can be seen at
http://basketwin.es/
@Arnaldo_tipster (Spanish Basketball):One of the most profitable tipsters in Spanish Basketball leagues, he started winning when he left tennis predictions, had an impressive 18.69% ROI in 162 Basketball tips, and by being a paying tipster, his odds dropped to 5.14% ROI in 919 tips. I personally feel these stats underestimate his potential. His monthly cost is only 10€ and his stats can be seen at
http://premium.apuesta10.com/tipsters/arnaldo/statistics
@nbacrusher (American Sports):
Funny enough, his best stats come from English Football Premier League, but his main volume comes from NBA (Basketball), MLB (Baseball) and NHL (Ice Hockey). He is free and only posts his tips on Twitter, and unfortunately with almost no time before matches start (15-30 minutes before start). He has a 60% plus hitting ratio on 50% odds, and since I have been keeping an excel sheet on him, he has given me an 11.97% ROI overall (all sports) in 105 tips.
When talking about our web own betting skills, myself (alquimista), Fenice (football & tennis) and 3 others that were dropped at a moment in time (Charles, Franba, Pperezxli), we managed to keep a 1.58% winning ROI with a total of 3317 tips, getting a +138.07% profit in just over 12 months, which is not bad for being a free blog website.
The numbers are as follows:
ALQUIMISTA
1938 tips
+3.19 units profit
5196.35 units invested
+0.06% ROI
FENICE
599 tips
+128.74 units profit
1850.40 units invested
+6.96% ROI
OTHERS
780 tips
+12.11 units profit
2041.20 units invested
+0.59% ROI
In our new stage, starting tomorrow Wednesday 11th July 2012, we will be posting tips from our own website and from all the tipsters we follow, not showing the tips if they are paying tipsters, but just numbering them, to show the result when bets have ended with the result. This way we will see a full vision of how we are managing our funds, so that anybody who wishes to follow us can easily do so.
The bookies we will be using with be Asian as they have higher limits per bet, and they never limit a winner, unlike the European bookies, who do so unfortunately. We will be posting odds from PINNACLE, SBOBET & 188BET, but will post the best possible odds for our Spanish & European viewers, taking odds from BET365, WILLIAM HILL, LADBROKES & BWIN.
Finally, we will be using a system, where stakes range from a 10$ minimum bet to the full 100$ as a maximum, which is the same to say we are going to bet from a minimum of 1% of our bankroll to a maximum of 10% per bet. But not all tipsters we follow will get the same confidence; there are some who are 'top', some who are 'great' and others just 'good'. This is a list of the tipsters and their relation in confidence towards our own tips:
- GOLD TIPSTERS = @MJosemma @Lordapuestas & @Basketwin_ES
Whatever percentage of Stake they propose, we will double (x 2) the investment, i.e. if they say 4% (Stake 4), we will be betting 4% x 2 = 8%. In other words, a 40$ bet becomes an 80$ bet with Gold tipsters.
- SILVER TIPSTERS = @Arnaldo_tipster & @Kaluba_76
Whatever percentage of Stake they propose, we will add 50% (x 1.5) the investment, i.e. if they say 4% (Stake 4), we will be betting 4% x 1.5 = 6%. In other words, a 40$ bet becomes a 60$ bet with Silver tipsters.
- BRONZE TIPSTERS = @Bettingfamily @Be7man & @nbacrusher
Whatever percentage of Stake they propose, we will bet the investment, i.e. if they say 4% (Stake 4), we will be betting 4%. In other words, a 40$ bet is a 40$ bet with Bronze tipsters.
Logically, if one of these tipsters go better (or worse), they will go up (or down) the ladder in confidence, so a Bronze can become Gold in long term, as much as a Gold can drop to Bronze.
And just for all of you who want to see a positive reference about us, this letter sent by an anonymous reflects the reason why we keep fighting every day to give you all the best way to earn money in this slippery and dangerous betting world:
"Dear Marcus,
Behind my nickname xxxxxxxxxxx (in Twitter), there is a 29 year old "youngster" called xxxxx, who always found interesting the betting online world. I started 7-8 years ago, but from a very "amateur" point of view. And after a bad run with some friends, I decided to quit until approx. a year ago, where through Twitter I started reading "someone" called Alquimista1x2, and started to follow his interesting blog. In the beginning I could not believe that there could be really someone who could live off betting comfortably. As time went by, the blog and, especially, Twitter, I discovered a "world" that I could have never imagined. A world where, as in the real one, there are very nice people, and some who are not. People who help others and people who do not care. In this time I have learnt a lot of things, I have seen and read loads of stuff. And I am sure there are more to come. But beyond all of that, it is a world that I thoroughly enjoy. And not only for the economical matter (which is obvious). All those conversations you had with Codycioso, Josemma, Arnaldo, Nowikisand, etc, are unpayable. I would not have known who they were, what is an AH, who is apuesta10, if it had not been for you. So, before anything else, I would like to thank you for creating your blog, and dedicate so much to it. Maybe it is not important for you, as I am a passive viewer (I have never entered the chat, for example), but I hope you can value the honesty from which I am trying to transmit my thanks for helping so many people to have a better life, but also to have more knowledge, to learn, and to value a lot certain matters like sincerity, honesty, humility.
I do not want you to think I am overreacting. I can assure you I am being sincere. It has been a while I wanted to write this to you, because there is a kind of moral debt I have with you. So, THANK YOU, once again.
Best regards,
Xxxxx"
